Ethereum Up or Down on August 7?
Ends: Aug 7, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 7, 2026, 17:13 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 7, 2026, 16:14 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T11:54:34.161Z | 84.0% | 61.4% | -22.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:03:17.769Z | 84.0% | 67.1% | -16.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:15:20.790Z | 84.0% | 92.3% | +8.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:22:36.046Z | 84.0% | 89.4% | +5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:32:36.454Z | 84.0% | 92.1% | +8.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:40:47.422Z | 84.0% | 89.7% | +5.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:49:16.197Z | 84.0% | 94.0% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:52:35.955Z | 84.0% | 94.0% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:01:35.492Z | 84.0% | 94.0% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:12:11.814Z | 84.0% | 92.2% | +8.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:20:42.279Z | 84.0% | 93.7% | +9.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:30:36.145Z | 84.0% | 91.2% | +7.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:38:36.142Z | 84.0% | 90.6% | +6.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:44:09.400Z | 84.0% | 95.6% | +11.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:50:40.998Z | 84.0% | 94.5% | +10.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:59:35.769Z | 84.0% | 86.4% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:08:30.308Z | 84.0% | 61.8% | -22.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:12:23.806Z | 84.0% | 66.9% | -17.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:22:43.164Z | 84.0% | 83.6% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:33:52.269Z | 84.0% | 90.4% | +6.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:39:40.690Z | 84.0% | 94.3% | +10.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:47:43.718Z | 84.0% | 84.4% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:59:09.456Z | 84.0% | 67.0% | -17.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:04:36.698Z | 84.0% | 68.7% | -15.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:12:48.075Z | 84.0% | 83.6% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:18:40.220Z | 84.0% | 81.9% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:25:51.692Z | 84.0% | 84.9% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:34:08.595Z | 84.0% | 96.6% | +12.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:48:44.098Z | 84.0% | 98.6% | +14.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T16:00:44.487Z | 84.0% | 100.0% | +16.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 07, 04:00 PM | 84.0% | 100.0% | +16 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 07, 03:48 PM | 84.0% | 98.6% | +15 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 07, 03:34 PM | 84.0% | 96.6% | +13 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 07, 03:25 PM | 84.0% | 84.9% | +0.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:18 PM | 84.0% | 81.9% | −2.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:12 PM | 84.0% | 83.6% | −0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:04 PM | 84.0% | 68.7% | −15 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 07, 02:59 PM | 84.0% | 67.0% | −17 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.