Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
Ends: Oct 1, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Sep 17, 2026, 02:47 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15T20:59:42.805Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T21:56:31.307Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T22:59:24.630Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T23:54:23.140Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T00:59:22.771Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T01:26:59.985Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T02:33:35.454Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T03:38:08.902Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T04:39:38.488Z | 97.4% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T05:52:55.205Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T06:54:55.476Z | 97.4% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T07:55:54.014Z | 97.7% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T08:54:06.886Z | 97.7% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T09:58:33.389Z | 97.9% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T11:09:28.623Z | 97.7% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T12:03:02.255Z | 97.8% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T13:09:41.321Z | 97.7% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T14:07:41.590Z | 97.6% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T15:18:24.701Z | 97.7% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T16:18:15.008Z | 97.8% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T17:23:29.643Z | 97.7% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T18:24:21.009Z | 97.8% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T19:25:33.762Z | 97.9% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T20:31:46.527Z | 98.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T21:35:03.445Z | 98.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T22:37:09.481Z | 98.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T23:39:51.788Z | 98.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-17T00:42:34.433Z | 98.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-17T01:51:24.057Z | 98.1% | - | — |
| 2026-09-17T02:47:14.076Z | 98.1% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.