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World · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

Ends: Oct 1, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Sep 17, 2026, 02:03 UTC

VERDICTFAIR VALUE CALCULATING

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 98.1%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0%25%50%75%100%
MARX FAIRFair Price is calculating. The line appears after data validation.
Aug 25, 07:58 PMAug 31, 09:29 AMSep 05, 11:00 PMSep 11, 12:32 PMSep 17, 02:03 AM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-25T19:58:12.097Z6.5%-
2026-08-26T00:35:26.587Z6.5%-
2026-09-15T16:58:14.703Z97.3%-
2026-09-15T18:55:56.224Z97.0%-
2026-09-15T22:59:24.630Z97.5%-
2026-09-16T03:27:04.056Z97.5%-
2026-09-16T08:01:07.871Z97.7%-
2026-09-16T12:35:58.791Z97.7%-
2026-09-16T17:01:54.536Z97.9%-
2026-09-16T21:35:03.445Z98.0%-
2026-09-17T02:03:27.820Z98.1%-

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

0 events

No linked events in this range.

FAIR PRICE CALCULATION

  • Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.