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World · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

Ends: Oct 1, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Sep 17, 2026, 02:03 UTC

VERDICTFAIR VALUE CALCULATING

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 98.1%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0%25%50%75%100%
MARX FAIRFair Price is calculating. The line appears after data validation.
Sep 16, 02:08 AMSep 16, 08:07 AMSep 16, 02:06 PMSep 16, 08:05 PMSep 17, 02:03 AM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-09-16T21:47:14.616Z98.0%-
2026-09-16T21:52:50.366Z98.0%-
2026-09-16T22:04:14.340Z98.0%-
2026-09-16T22:15:44.499Z98.0%-
2026-09-16T22:26:45.285Z98.0%-
2026-09-16T22:31:57.370Z98.0%-
2026-09-16T22:37:09.481Z98.0%-
2026-09-16T22:53:54.077Z98.0%-
2026-09-16T22:59:31.788Z98.0%-
2026-09-16T23:04:49.444Z98.0%-
2026-09-16T23:15:33.993Z98.0%-
2026-09-16T23:29:12.026Z98.0%-
2026-09-16T23:34:23.480Z98.0%-
2026-09-16T23:45:06.985Z98.0%-
2026-09-16T23:52:25.267Z98.0%-
2026-09-17T00:03:10.381Z98.0%-
2026-09-17T00:08:53.102Z98.0%-
2026-09-17T00:20:24.334Z98.0%-
2026-09-17T00:26:52.889Z98.0%-
2026-09-17T00:37:23.621Z98.0%-
2026-09-17T00:47:50.415Z98.2%-
2026-09-17T00:58:14.432Z98.2%-
2026-09-17T01:03:54.492Z98.2%-
2026-09-17T01:14:35.252Z98.2%-
2026-09-17T01:22:05.313Z98.2%-
2026-09-17T01:32:41.028Z98.1%-
2026-09-17T01:43:14.880Z98.1%-
2026-09-17T01:51:24.057Z98.1%-
2026-09-17T01:56:50.957Z98.1%-
2026-09-17T02:03:47.761Z98.1%-

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

0 events

No linked events in this range.

FAIR PRICE CALCULATION

  • Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.