Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
Ends: Oct 1, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Sep 16, 2026, 24:58 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15T20:37:28.036Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T20:49:18.737Z | 97.6% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T20:54:30.828Z | 97.6% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T20:59:42.805Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T21:05:01.543Z | 97.4% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T21:12:59.163Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T21:18:35.446Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T21:23:44.833Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T21:29:19.653Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T21:34:59.562Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T21:41:52.318Z | 97.4% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T21:51:16.301Z | 97.4% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T21:56:31.307Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T22:02:04.550Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T22:21:22.509Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T22:26:36.642Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T22:32:29.114Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T22:54:00.984Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T22:59:24.630Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T23:04:51.806Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T23:23:35.132Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T23:28:44.278Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T23:34:07.107Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T23:39:16.549Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T23:54:23.140Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T00:00:04.969Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T00:23:57.771Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T00:29:16.383Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T00:53:47.658Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T00:58:42.306Z | 97.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.