Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
Ends: Oct 1, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Sep 15, 2026, 23:04 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25T19:58:12.097Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T20:48:36.278Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-26T01:52:24.600Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T16:08:52.999Z | 97.2% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T18:50:44.150Z | 97.2% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T23:04:36.568Z | 97.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.