Ethereum Up or Down on August 8?
Ends: Aug 8, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 8, 2026, 16:57 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 8, 2026, 16:23 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T11:22:25.973Z | 50.0% | 53.5% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:27:51.950Z | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:35:51.871Z | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:45:46.472Z | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:53:46.171Z | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.9 pp |
| 2026-08-08T12:04:42.940Z | 50.0% | 53.6% | +3.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T12:17:52.222Z | 50.0% | 56.6% | +6.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T12:21:47.345Z | 50.0% | 55.2% | +5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T12:31:41.749Z | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T12:39:57.892Z | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T12:52:40.358Z | 50.0% | 55.2% | +5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T13:04:42.604Z | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T13:16:46.159Z | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T13:24:41.426Z | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T13:35:45.662Z | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-08T13:46:41.715Z | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T13:54:43.904Z | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:07:43.036Z | 50.0% | 57.4% | +7.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:18:21.644Z | 50.0% | 59.0% | +9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:30:23.539Z | 50.0% | 68.0% | +18.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:36:44.686Z | 50.0% | 75.0% | +25.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:46:49.361Z | 50.0% | 67.4% | +17.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:52:48.715Z | 50.0% | 74.6% | +24.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:07:44.902Z | 50.0% | 68.7% | +18.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:16:43.056Z | 50.0% | 77.7% | +27.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:22:42.778Z | 50.0% | 73.1% | +23.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:33:43.537Z | 50.0% | 71.8% | +21.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:39:52.065Z | 50.0% | 73.2% | +23.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:50:50.929Z | 50.0% | 85.7% | +35.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T16:00:56.398Z | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 08, 04:00 PM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 08, 03:50 PM | 50.0% | 85.7% | +36 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 08, 03:39 PM | 50.0% | 73.2% | +23 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 08, 03:33 PM | 50.0% | 71.8% | +22 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 08, 03:22 PM | 50.0% | 73.1% | +23 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 08, 03:16 PM | 50.0% | 77.7% | +28 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 08, 03:07 PM | 50.0% | 68.7% | +19 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 08, 02:52 PM | 50.0% | 74.6% | +25 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.