Ethereum Up or Down on August 8?
Ends: Aug 8, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 8, 2026, 16:57 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 8, 2026, 16:23 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T14:05:43.139Z | 63.5% | 58.6% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:13:46.154Z | 73.5% | 59.5% | -14.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:15:26.178Z | 73.5% | 59.5% | -14.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:21:48.290Z | 76.0% | 59.4% | -16.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:23:11.110Z | 76.0% | 59.4% | -16.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:32:11.211Z | 84.5% | 75.2% | -9.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:34:44.127Z | 84.5% | 75.2% | -9.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:41:13.498Z | 88.0% | 64.6% | -23.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:44:09.900Z | 88.0% | 64.6% | -23.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:48:49.442Z | 91.0% | 71.2% | -19.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:50:13.489Z | 91.0% | 71.2% | -19.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:59:11.163Z | 95.5% | 73.5% | -22.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:00:55.979Z | 95.5% | 73.5% | -22.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:08:12.541Z | 88.5% | 69.7% | -18.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:09:45.796Z | 88.5% | 69.7% | -18.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:17:11.196Z | 91.5% | 75.6% | -15.9 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:18:45.801Z | 91.5% | 75.6% | -15.9 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:24:46.699Z | 91.5% | 71.9% | -19.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:26:12.406Z | 91.5% | 71.9% | -19.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:33:45.330Z | 92.0% | 71.8% | -20.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:38:15.140Z | 92.0% | 73.2% | -18.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:39:53.247Z | 92.0% | 73.2% | -18.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:44:11.411Z | 97.0% | 73.2% | -23.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:50:50.929Z | 98.5% | 85.7% | -12.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:53:11.160Z | 98.5% | 85.7% | -12.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T16:00:56.398Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T16:02:48.504Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T16:14:20.461Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T16:26:58.982Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T16:29:19.539Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 08, 04:00 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 03:50 PM | 98.5% | 85.7% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 03:39 PM | 92.0% | 73.2% | −19 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 03:33 PM | 92.0% | 71.8% | −20 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 03:24 PM | 91.5% | 71.9% | −20 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 03:18 PM | 91.5% | 75.6% | −16 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 03:09 PM | 88.5% | 69.7% | −19 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 03:00 PM | 95.5% | 73.5% | −22 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.