Ethereum Up or Down on August 8?
Ends: Aug 8, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 8, 2026, 16:57 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 8, 2026, 16:23 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T15:33:45.330Z | 91.5% | 71.8% | -19.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:35:43.542Z | 92.0% | 69.0% | -23.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:37:50.526Z | 92.0% | 71.8% | -20.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:37:50.876Z | 92.0% | 71.8% | -20.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:38:15.140Z | 92.0% | 71.8% | -20.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:39:52.065Z | 92.0% | 73.2% | -18.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:39:53.247Z | 92.0% | 73.2% | -18.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:44:11.411Z | 97.0% | 75.5% | -21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:44:20.042Z | 97.0% | 75.5% | -21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:44:22.988Z | 97.0% | 75.5% | -21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:45:11.302Z | 97.0% | 75.5% | -21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:46:46.094Z | 97.5% | 77.5% | -20.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:48:11.202Z | 97.5% | 78.0% | -19.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:48:50.455Z | 97.5% | 78.0% | -19.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:50:11.378Z | 98.5% | 85.7% | -12.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:50:50.929Z | 98.5% | 85.7% | -12.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:52:11.423Z | 98.5% | 91.1% | -7.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:52:47.294Z | 98.5% | 91.1% | -7.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:54:22.764Z | 99.2% | 94.3% | -4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:54:53.300Z | 99.2% | 94.3% | -4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:54:54.325Z | 99.2% | 94.3% | -4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:57:45.960Z | 100.0% | 98.0% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-08T15:58:17.984Z | 100.0% | 98.0% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-08T16:00:56.398Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T16:02:48.504Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T16:07:51.774Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T16:14:20.461Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T16:19:29.165Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T16:26:58.982Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T16:29:19.539Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 08, 04:00 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 03:58 PM | 100.0% | 98.0% | −1.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 03:54 PM | 99.2% | 94.3% | −4.8 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 03:54 PM | 99.2% | 94.3% | −4.8 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 03:52 PM | 98.5% | 91.1% | −7.4 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 03:50 PM | 98.5% | 85.7% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 03:48 PM | 97.5% | 78.0% | −20 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 03:46 PM | 97.5% | 77.5% | −20 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.