Bitcoin Up or Down on August 22?
Ends: Aug 22, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 24, 2026, 03:48 UTCResult: DOWNResolved: Aug 22, 2026, 16:14 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21T15:59:52.133Z | 52.5% | 46.9% | -5.6 pp |
| 2026-08-21T16:57:21.954Z | 56.5% | 46.9% | -9.6 pp |
| 2026-08-21T17:57:50.083Z | 56.5% | 46.9% | -9.6 pp |
| 2026-08-21T18:57:27.079Z | 41.5% | 46.9% | +5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T19:44:44.903Z | 41.5% | 46.9% | +5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T20:48:13.278Z | 54.5% | 46.9% | -7.6 pp |
| 2026-08-21T21:41:29.949Z | 72.0% | 79.6% | +7.6 pp |
| 2026-08-21T22:41:03.182Z | 79.0% | 79.6% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-21T22:41:53.138Z | 79.0% | 79.6% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-21T23:57:38.562Z | 78.0% | 79.6% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T00:47:26.166Z | 71.0% | 82.7% | +11.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T01:48:42.602Z | 72.0% | 82.7% | +10.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T02:46:47.904Z | 86.0% | 82.7% | -3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-22T02:49:19.315Z | 86.0% | 82.7% | -3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-22T03:53:49.308Z | 87.5% | 85.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T03:56:55.160Z | 87.5% | 85.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T04:53:50.333Z | 88.5% | 85.9% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T05:45:28.441Z | 50.5% | 85.9% | +35.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T06:57:27.964Z | 58.5% | 85.9% | +27.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T07:57:27.512Z | 52.5% | 37.8% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T08:57:54.545Z | 41.5% | 37.8% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:58:53.109Z | 33.0% | 37.8% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:59:01.991Z | 33.0% | 37.8% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:57:28.287Z | 37.0% | 37.8% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-22T12:59:05.741Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T12:59:30.507Z | 53.5% | 53.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T13:54:35.572Z | 53.5% | 53.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T14:57:57.245Z | 16.5% | 53.0% | +36.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:57:49.481Z | 0.4% | 53.0% | +52.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T16:28:45.367Z | 0.0% | 53.0% | +53.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 01:54 PM | 53.5% | 53.0% | −0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 12:59 PM | 53.5% | 53.5% | −0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 09:59 AM | 33.0% | 37.8% | +4.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 22, 03:56 AM | 87.5% | 85.9% | −1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 02:46 AM | 86.0% | 82.7% | −3.3 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 21, 10:41 PM | 79.0% | 79.6% | +0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 21, 07:44 PM | 41.5% | 46.9% | +5.4 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.