Bitcoin Up or Down on August 22?
Ends: Aug 22, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 24, 2026, 02:33 UTCResult: DOWNResolved: Aug 22, 2026, 16:14 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22T14:03:49.420Z | 16.5% | 49.6% | +33.1 pp |
| 2026-08-22T14:06:51.797Z | 16.5% | 43.4% | +26.9 pp |
| 2026-08-22T14:10:42.265Z | 16.5% | 31.0% | +14.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T14:19:17.807Z | 16.5% | 25.4% | +8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-22T14:21:57.632Z | 16.5% | 30.2% | +13.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T14:25:09.074Z | 16.5% | 27.4% | +10.9 pp |
| 2026-08-22T14:28:35.937Z | 16.5% | 27.4% | +10.9 pp |
| 2026-08-22T14:30:31.821Z | 16.5% | 32.9% | +16.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T14:33:57.805Z | 16.5% | 31.2% | +14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T14:35:26.094Z | 16.5% | 31.2% | +14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T14:36:44.428Z | 16.5% | 37.5% | +21.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T14:51:09.857Z | 16.5% | 26.9% | +10.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T14:54:08.553Z | 16.5% | 21.3% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-22T14:57:57.245Z | 16.5% | 21.3% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:04:17.272Z | 16.5% | 20.4% | +3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:13:21.014Z | 16.5% | 17.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:16:23.267Z | 16.5% | 14.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:19:24.007Z | 16.5% | 16.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:22:15.544Z | 16.5% | 13.4% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:30:28.890Z | 16.5% | 14.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:33:18.402Z | 16.5% | 12.8% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:36:21.743Z | 16.5% | 20.5% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:39:19.698Z | 16.5% | 15.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:41:22.495Z | 16.5% | 12.3% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:45:20.250Z | 16.5% | 8.3% | -8.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:47:25.446Z | 16.5% | 13.5% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:50:17.433Z | 16.5% | 6.5% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:53:41.126Z | 16.5% | 0.3% | -16.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:58:12.049Z | 16.5% | 0.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T16:00:22.140Z | 16.5% | 0.0% | -16.5 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 04:00 PM | 16.5% | 0.0% | −16 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 22, 03:58 PM | 16.5% | 0.0% | −16 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 22, 03:53 PM | 16.5% | 0.3% | −16 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 22, 03:50 PM | 16.5% | 6.5% | −10.0 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 22, 03:47 PM | 16.5% | 13.5% | −3.0 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 22, 03:45 PM | 16.5% | 8.3% | −8.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 22, 03:41 PM | 16.5% | 12.3% | −4.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 22, 03:39 PM | 16.5% | 15.1% | −1.4 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.