Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17?
Ends: Aug 17, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 16, 2026, 22:57 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16T21:53:25.719Z | 39.0% | 37.6% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:55:29.654Z | 39.0% | 36.6% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:59:25.379Z | 39.0% | 29.8% | -9.2 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:02:23.243Z | 39.0% | 29.8% | -9.2 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:04:25.006Z | 39.0% | 29.1% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:06:24.674Z | 39.0% | 32.7% | -6.3 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:06:25.158Z | 39.0% | 32.7% | -6.3 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:07:55.149Z | 39.0% | 32.7% | -6.3 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:08:29.343Z | 39.0% | 31.6% | -7.4 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:11:40.213Z | 39.0% | 34.4% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:21:43.117Z | 39.0% | 33.9% | -5.1 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:24:25.634Z | 39.0% | 32.1% | -6.9 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:26:45.349Z | 39.0% | 30.9% | -8.1 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:26:47.601Z | 39.0% | 30.9% | -8.1 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:30:38.099Z | 33.0% | 29.4% | -3.6 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:32:29.034Z | 33.0% | 28.6% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:32:46.288Z | 33.0% | 28.6% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:36:23.907Z | 33.0% | 26.5% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:37:50.054Z | 33.0% | 26.5% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:38:22.892Z | 33.0% | 24.6% | -8.4 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:39:45.915Z | 33.0% | 24.6% | -8.4 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:40:26.609Z | 33.0% | 24.4% | -8.6 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:40:26.794Z | 33.0% | 24.4% | -8.6 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:45:07.615Z | 33.0% | 22.6% | -10.4 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:47:34.414Z | 33.0% | 25.1% | -7.9 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:50:31.007Z | 33.0% | 26.9% | -6.1 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:52:24.989Z | 33.0% | 27.4% | -5.6 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:54:44.967Z | 33.0% | 28.1% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:54:45.447Z | 33.0% | 28.1% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:57:39.647Z | 33.0% | 28.1% | -4.9 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 10:54 PM | 39.0% | 28.1% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 16, 10:54 PM | 39.0% | 28.1% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 16, 10:52 PM | 39.0% | 27.4% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 16, 10:50 PM | 39.0% | 26.9% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 16, 10:47 PM | 39.0% | 25.1% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 16, 10:45 PM | 39.0% | 22.6% | −16 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 16, 10:40 PM | 39.0% | 24.4% | −15 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 16, 10:40 PM | 39.0% | 24.4% | −15 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.