Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17?
Ends: Aug 17, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 18, 2026, 24:45 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 17, 2026, 16:14 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17T14:14:13.605Z | 94.5% | 99.9% | +5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:15:58.172Z | 94.5% | 99.9% | +5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:18:57.220Z | 94.5% | 100.0% | +5.5 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:21:50.530Z | 95.5% | 99.9% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:23:47.150Z | 95.5% | 99.9% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:25:21.150Z | 95.5% | 99.9% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:31:00.939Z | 96.4% | 99.9% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:35:14.435Z | 96.4% | 100.0% | +3.6 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:36:51.717Z | 96.4% | 100.0% | +3.6 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:38:46.747Z | 96.4% | 100.0% | +3.6 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:43:43.185Z | 95.5% | 99.9% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:46:04.709Z | 95.5% | 99.9% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:50:13.844Z | 96.5% | 99.9% | +3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:58:28.787Z | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:59:13.276Z | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:04:52.551Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:10:13.725Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:11:50.972Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:24:32.408Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:30:18.144Z | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:31:53.881Z | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:37:51.121Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:40:30.258Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:45:13.234Z | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:46:03.690Z | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:51:55.340Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:55:13.434Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:57:02.723Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T16:05:33.951Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T16:22:27.118Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 03:57 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 17, 03:51 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 17, 03:46 PM | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 17, 03:37 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 17, 03:31 PM | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 17, 03:11 PM | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 17, 03:04 PM | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 17, 02:58 PM | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.