Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17?
Ends: Aug 17, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 18, 2026, 24:45 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 17, 2026, 16:14 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17T12:40:49.641Z | 89.5% | 95.4% | +5.9 pp |
| 2026-08-17T12:49:49.648Z | 89.5% | 97.5% | +8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T12:53:44.016Z | 89.5% | 95.6% | +6.1 pp |
| 2026-08-17T13:09:03.179Z | 89.5% | 96.0% | +6.5 pp |
| 2026-08-17T13:11:01.025Z | 89.5% | 96.5% | +7.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T13:17:49.195Z | 89.5% | 96.1% | +6.6 pp |
| 2026-08-17T13:22:48.179Z | 89.5% | 94.6% | +5.1 pp |
| 2026-08-17T13:30:57.080Z | 100.0% | 95.6% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-17T13:36:47.482Z | 100.0% | 99.7% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-17T13:47:48.671Z | 100.0% | 99.4% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-17T13:53:41.505Z | 100.0% | 99.7% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:00:52.193Z | 100.0% | 99.8% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:06:42.959Z | 100.0% | 99.6% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:08:46.913Z | 100.0% | 99.4% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:15:58.172Z | 100.0% | 99.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:18:57.999Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:23:46.377Z | 100.0% | 99.9% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:26:32.579Z | 100.0% | 99.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:33:55.854Z | 100.0% | 99.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:38:46.233Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:43:45.430Z | 100.0% | 99.9% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-17T14:53:47.274Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:01:57.790Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:07:52.287Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:29:21.729Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:34:52.976Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:44:13.153Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:46:03.690Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:51:55.340Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-17T15:57:02.723Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 03:57 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 17, 03:51 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 17, 03:46 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 17, 03:34 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 17, 03:29 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 17, 03:07 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 17, 03:01 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 17, 02:53 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.