Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17?
Ends: Aug 17, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 16, 2026, 22:29 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16T21:20:29.089Z | 35.5% | 44.6% | +9.1 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:22:20.375Z | 35.5% | 43.6% | +8.1 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:26:40.721Z | 35.5% | 43.1% | +7.6 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:32:28.314Z | 35.5% | 41.6% | +6.1 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:34:24.934Z | 35.5% | 42.3% | +6.8 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:36:21.771Z | 35.5% | 42.7% | +7.2 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:36:21.849Z | 35.5% | 42.7% | +7.2 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:38:15.091Z | 35.5% | 42.7% | +7.2 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:38:28.435Z | 35.5% | 42.2% | +6.7 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:40:39.832Z | 35.5% | 40.7% | +5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:40:44.598Z | 35.5% | 40.7% | +5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:48:33.998Z | 35.5% | 33.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:48:34.751Z | 35.5% | 33.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:50:25.268Z | 35.5% | 36.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:50:35.181Z | 35.5% | 36.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:53:25.719Z | 35.5% | 37.6% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-16T21:55:29.654Z | 35.5% | 36.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:02:23.243Z | 35.5% | 29.8% | -5.7 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:04:25.006Z | 35.5% | 29.1% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:06:24.674Z | 35.5% | 32.7% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:06:25.158Z | 35.5% | 32.7% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:07:55.149Z | 35.5% | 32.7% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:08:29.343Z | 35.5% | 31.6% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:08:29.730Z | 35.5% | 31.6% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:11:40.213Z | 35.5% | 34.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:21:43.117Z | 35.5% | 33.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:24:25.634Z | 35.5% | 32.1% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:26:45.349Z | 35.5% | 30.9% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:26:47.601Z | 35.5% | 30.9% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-16T22:29:06.227Z | 35.5% | 30.9% | -4.6 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 10:26 PM | 51.5% | 30.9% | −21 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 16, 10:26 PM | 51.5% | 30.9% | −21 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 16, 10:24 PM | 51.5% | 32.1% | −19 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 16, 10:21 PM | 51.5% | 33.9% | −18 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 16, 10:11 PM | 51.5% | 34.4% | −17 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 16, 10:08 PM | 51.5% | 31.6% | −20 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 16, 10:08 PM | 51.5% | 31.6% | −20 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 16, 10:07 PM | 51.5% | 32.7% | −19 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.