Bitcoin Up or Down on August 24?
Ends: Aug 24, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 25, 2026, 06:35 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 24, 2026, 16:13 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24T09:50:16.249Z | 50.5% | 63.5% | +13.0 pp |
| 2026-08-24T10:15:37.609Z | 50.5% | 73.9% | +23.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T10:19:13.033Z | 50.5% | 74.6% | +24.1 pp |
| 2026-08-24T10:37:03.944Z | 50.5% | 81.6% | +31.1 pp |
| 2026-08-24T11:02:23.743Z | 50.5% | 75.7% | +25.2 pp |
| 2026-08-24T11:04:38.723Z | 50.5% | 65.4% | +14.9 pp |
| 2026-08-24T11:07:57.190Z | 50.5% | 67.3% | +16.8 pp |
| 2026-08-24T11:26:06.895Z | 50.5% | 79.9% | +29.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T11:35:52.939Z | 50.5% | 85.4% | +34.9 pp |
| 2026-08-24T11:47:06.485Z | 50.5% | 95.9% | +45.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T11:51:30.221Z | 50.5% | 89.9% | +39.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T11:54:21.243Z | 50.5% | 89.9% | +39.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T12:22:17.546Z | 50.5% | 93.1% | +42.6 pp |
| 2026-08-24T12:47:07.578Z | 50.5% | 98.3% | +47.8 pp |
| 2026-08-24T12:56:32.472Z | 50.5% | 99.9% | +49.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T12:59:40.932Z | 50.5% | 99.9% | +49.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T13:01:31.484Z | 50.5% | 99.8% | +49.3 pp |
| 2026-08-24T13:05:55.642Z | 50.5% | 99.7% | +49.2 pp |
| 2026-08-24T13:10:17.379Z | 50.5% | 99.9% | +49.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T13:32:59.188Z | 50.5% | 99.9% | +49.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T13:37:36.746Z | 50.5% | 99.6% | +49.1 pp |
| 2026-08-24T13:42:50.414Z | 50.5% | 99.3% | +48.8 pp |
| 2026-08-24T14:33:30.108Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T14:36:57.101Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T15:05:19.788Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T15:19:24.627Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T15:37:15.505Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T15:41:17.287Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T15:47:24.713Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T16:03:47.107Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 04:03 PM | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 24, 03:47 PM | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 24, 03:41 PM | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 24, 03:37 PM | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 24, 03:19 PM | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 24, 03:05 PM | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 24, 02:36 PM | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 24, 02:33 PM | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 23 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 24 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 23 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 24 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.