Bitcoin Up or Down on August 24?
Ends: Aug 24, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 24, 2026, 05:21 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24T03:49:07.799Z | 47.5% | 48.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:52:09.933Z | 47.5% | 48.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:52:11.912Z | 47.5% | 48.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:54:46.267Z | 45.5% | 43.6% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:57:47.155Z | 45.5% | 43.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:57:57.040Z | 45.5% | 43.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:00:02.712Z | 45.5% | 42.1% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:07:02.884Z | 43.5% | 45.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:07:05.465Z | 43.5% | 45.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:09:51.737Z | 43.5% | 43.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:10:36.651Z | 43.5% | 43.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:14:56.043Z | 44.5% | 44.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:14:56.664Z | 44.5% | 44.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:16:24.060Z | 44.5% | 44.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:17:00.032Z | 44.5% | 45.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:17:03.731Z | 44.5% | 45.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:42:33.947Z | 45.5% | 50.4% | +4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:42:50.905Z | 45.5% | 50.4% | +4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:44:46.558Z | 43.5% | 46.6% | +3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:44:51.624Z | 43.5% | 46.6% | +3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:04:46.735Z | 42.5% | 41.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:07:12.844Z | 42.5% | 41.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:07:58.227Z | 42.5% | 41.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:12:48.769Z | 51.5% | 43.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:13:43.531Z | 51.5% | 43.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:13:46.467Z | 51.5% | 43.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:17:04.942Z | 51.5% | 47.2% | -4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:17:51.883Z | 46.5% | 47.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:18:06.609Z | 46.5% | 47.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:21:46.442Z | 46.5% | 47.2% | +0.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 05:18 AM | 51.5% | 47.2% | −4.3 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 05:17 AM | 51.5% | 47.2% | −4.3 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 05:17 AM | 51.5% | 47.2% | −4.3 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 05:13 AM | 51.5% | 43.8% | −7.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 05:12 AM | 51.5% | 43.8% | −7.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 05:07 AM | 42.5% | 41.9% | −0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 24, 05:07 AM | 42.5% | 41.9% | −0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 24, 04:44 AM | 43.5% | 46.6% | +3.1 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 23 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 24 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 23 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 24 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.