Bitcoin Up or Down on August 24?
Ends: Aug 24, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 24, 2026, 05:21 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24T02:58:48.533Z | 57.0% | 58.2% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-24T02:58:52.187Z | 57.0% | 58.2% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:07:04.216Z | 57.0% | 54.3% | -2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:10:34.101Z | 46.5% | 51.1% | +4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:13:40.953Z | 46.5% | 50.8% | +4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:16:20.667Z | 46.5% | 50.7% | +4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:16:43.541Z | 46.5% | 50.7% | +4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:44:23.603Z | 46.5% | 43.9% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:52:09.933Z | 46.5% | 48.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:52:11.912Z | 46.5% | 48.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:54:46.267Z | 46.5% | 43.6% | -2.9 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:57:47.155Z | 46.5% | 43.1% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:00:02.712Z | 46.5% | 42.1% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:07:02.884Z | 46.5% | 45.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:07:05.465Z | 46.5% | 45.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:09:51.737Z | 46.5% | 43.9% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:14:56.043Z | 46.5% | 44.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:14:56.664Z | 46.5% | 44.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:16:24.060Z | 46.5% | 44.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:17:00.032Z | 46.5% | 45.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:42:33.947Z | 46.5% | 50.4% | +3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:44:46.558Z | 46.5% | 46.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:07:12.844Z | 46.5% | 41.9% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:07:58.227Z | 46.5% | 41.9% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:12:48.769Z | 46.5% | 43.8% | -2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:13:46.467Z | 46.5% | 43.8% | -2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:17:04.942Z | 46.5% | 47.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:17:51.883Z | 46.5% | 47.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:18:06.609Z | 46.5% | 47.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T05:21:46.442Z | 46.5% | 47.2% | +0.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 05:18 AM | 57.0% | 47.2% | −9.8 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 05:17 AM | 57.0% | 47.2% | −9.8 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 05:17 AM | 57.0% | 47.2% | −9.8 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 05:13 AM | 57.0% | 43.8% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 05:12 AM | 57.0% | 43.8% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 05:07 AM | 57.0% | 41.9% | −15 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 05:07 AM | 57.0% | 41.9% | −15 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 04:44 AM | 57.0% | 46.6% | −10 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 23 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 24 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 23 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 24 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.