Bitcoin Up or Down on August 24?
Ends: Aug 24, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 24, 2026, 04:43 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24T02:35:33.713Z | 45.5% | 58.0% | +12.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T02:38:27.032Z | 45.5% | 59.5% | +14.0 pp |
| 2026-08-24T02:44:40.652Z | 45.5% | 57.7% | +12.2 pp |
| 2026-08-24T02:45:57.981Z | 45.5% | 57.7% | +12.2 pp |
| 2026-08-24T02:52:20.972Z | 45.5% | 54.6% | +9.1 pp |
| 2026-08-24T02:53:33.546Z | 45.5% | 54.6% | +9.1 pp |
| 2026-08-24T02:55:33.607Z | 45.5% | 55.4% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-24T02:55:48.873Z | 45.5% | 55.4% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-24T02:58:48.533Z | 45.5% | 58.2% | +12.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T02:58:52.187Z | 45.5% | 58.2% | +12.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:07:04.216Z | 45.5% | 54.3% | +8.8 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:10:34.101Z | 45.5% | 51.1% | +5.6 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:13:40.953Z | 45.5% | 50.8% | +5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:16:20.667Z | 45.5% | 50.7% | +5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:16:43.541Z | 45.5% | 50.7% | +5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:44:23.603Z | 45.5% | 43.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:50:46.658Z | 45.5% | 44.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:52:09.933Z | 45.5% | 48.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:52:11.912Z | 45.5% | 48.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-24T03:54:46.267Z | 45.5% | 43.6% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:00:02.712Z | 45.5% | 42.1% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:07:02.884Z | 45.5% | 45.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:07:05.465Z | 45.5% | 45.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:09:51.737Z | 45.5% | 43.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:12:53.653Z | 45.5% | 43.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:14:56.043Z | 45.5% | 44.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:14:56.664Z | 45.5% | 44.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:16:24.060Z | 45.5% | 44.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:17:00.032Z | 45.5% | 45.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-24T04:43:30.436Z | 45.5% | 45.6% | +0.1 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 04:17 AM | 60.5% | 45.6% | −15 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 04:16 AM | 60.5% | 44.0% | −17 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 04:14 AM | 60.5% | 44.0% | −17 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 04:14 AM | 60.5% | 44.0% | −17 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 04:12 AM | 60.5% | 43.7% | −17 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 04:09 AM | 60.5% | 43.9% | −17 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 04:07 AM | 60.5% | 45.8% | −15 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 24, 04:07 AM | 60.5% | 45.8% | −15 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 23 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 24 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 23 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 24 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.