Bitcoin Up or Down on September 19?
Ends: Sep 19, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 19, 2026, 19:36 UTCResult: UPResolved: Sep 19, 2026, 19:09 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19T11:32:00.462Z | 90.5% | 82.6% | -7.9 pp |
| 2026-09-19T11:33:13.159Z | 90.5% | 82.4% | -8.1 pp |
| 2026-09-19T11:35:19.471Z | 90.5% | 81.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T11:37:31.702Z | 90.5% | 82.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-09-19T11:45:06.297Z | 90.5% | 83.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-09-19T12:17:31.901Z | 90.5% | 84.8% | -5.7 pp |
| 2026-09-19T12:19:10.583Z | 90.5% | 87.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-19T12:22:42.231Z | 90.5% | 86.2% | -4.3 pp |
| 2026-09-19T12:23:45.406Z | 90.5% | 85.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-09-19T12:24:40.949Z | 90.5% | 83.7% | -6.8 pp |
| 2026-09-19T12:30:01.605Z | 90.5% | 83.8% | -6.7 pp |
| 2026-09-19T12:36:23.084Z | 90.5% | 86.4% | -4.1 pp |
| 2026-09-19T12:40:13.831Z | 90.5% | 85.9% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-09-19T12:47:12.452Z | 90.5% | 87.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-19T13:02:02.198Z | 90.5% | 88.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-19T13:02:10.478Z | 90.5% | 88.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-19T13:14:13.988Z | 99.8% | 87.7% | -12.1 pp |
| 2026-09-19T13:19:28.019Z | 99.8% | 89.8% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T13:22:49.787Z | 99.8% | 88.9% | -10.9 pp |
| 2026-09-19T13:25:40.188Z | 99.8% | 88.9% | -10.9 pp |
| 2026-09-19T13:28:48.215Z | 99.8% | 89.3% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-09-19T13:30:44.280Z | 99.8% | 86.5% | -13.3 pp |
| 2026-09-19T13:33:45.696Z | 99.8% | 89.2% | -10.6 pp |
| 2026-09-19T13:38:29.090Z | 99.8% | 90.0% | -9.8 pp |
| 2026-09-19T14:29:26.434Z | 99.8% | 99.1% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-19T14:31:30.432Z | 99.8% | 99.2% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-09-19T14:34:45.171Z | 99.8% | 99.3% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:17:02.461Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:19:32.363Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:48:18.901Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 03:48 PM | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 03:19 PM | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 02:34 PM | 99.8% | 99.3% | −0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 02:31 PM | 99.8% | 99.2% | −0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 02:29 PM | 99.8% | 99.1% | −0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 01:38 PM | 99.8% | 90.0% | −9.8 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 19, 01:33 PM | 99.8% | 89.2% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 19, 01:30 PM | 99.8% | 86.5% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.