Bitcoin Up or Down on September 19?
Ends: Sep 19, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 19, 2026, 19:36 UTCResult: UPResolved: Sep 19, 2026, 19:09 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19T14:42:36.474Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:02:47.472Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:04:46.667Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:17:02.461Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:19:32.363Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:24:48.988Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:31:57.011Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:43:57.799Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:48:18.901Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:51:27.110Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-19T16:19:22.118Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T16:29:54.250Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T16:40:08.450Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T16:45:22.664Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T16:56:15.389Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T17:06:33.078Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T17:11:40.266Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T17:22:16.128Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T17:32:30.858Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T17:42:48.555Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T17:47:54.971Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T17:58:04.407Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T18:08:13.036Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T18:19:28.729Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T18:24:38.849Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T18:34:48.503Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T18:45:41.509Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T18:55:58.296Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T19:01:22.739Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T19:11:33.846Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 03:48 PM | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 03:19 PM | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 02:36 PM | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 02:31 PM | 98.9% | 99.2% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 02:29 PM | 98.9% | 99.1% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 02:25 PM | 98.9% | 98.4% | −0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 01:34 PM | 94.5% | 89.2% | −5.3 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 19, 01:30 PM | 94.5% | 86.5% | −8.0 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.