Ethereum Up or Down on August 9?
Ends: Aug 9, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 9, 2026, 18:13 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 9, 2026, 16:31 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09T13:04:50.129Z | 30.5% | 38.0% | +7.5 pp |
| 2026-08-09T13:07:12.645Z | 30.5% | 39.3% | +8.8 pp |
| 2026-08-09T13:08:45.954Z | 30.5% | 39.3% | +8.8 pp |
| 2026-08-09T13:17:46.600Z | 30.5% | 51.1% | +20.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T13:21:41.877Z | 30.5% | 53.0% | +22.5 pp |
| 2026-08-09T13:26:04.457Z | 30.5% | 51.5% | +21.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T13:32:42.273Z | 30.5% | 53.8% | +23.3 pp |
| 2026-08-09T13:35:26.826Z | 30.5% | 52.5% | +22.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T13:40:54.657Z | 56.5% | 52.7% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-09T13:50:40.294Z | 56.5% | 50.1% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-08-09T13:59:06.823Z | 56.5% | 51.6% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:05:47.696Z | 56.5% | 51.4% | -5.1 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:10:13.984Z | 56.5% | 55.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:10:17.675Z | 56.5% | 55.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:17:43.204Z | 56.5% | 56.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:23:39.779Z | 56.5% | 55.5% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:34:46.256Z | 56.5% | 58.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:38:35.252Z | 56.5% | 52.1% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:49:39.997Z | 82.0% | 53.0% | -29.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:59:04.670Z | 82.0% | 60.8% | -21.2 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:03:44.631Z | 82.0% | 55.5% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:09:33.496Z | 82.0% | 62.4% | -19.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:13:12.558Z | 82.0% | 62.4% | -19.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:17:41.063Z | 82.0% | 72.1% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:23:42.375Z | 82.0% | 72.2% | -9.8 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:33:49.636Z | 82.0% | 74.4% | -7.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:38:41.566Z | 82.0% | 73.7% | -8.3 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:49:42.277Z | 100.0% | 86.9% | -13.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:59:00.927Z | 100.0% | 99.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T16:17:12.031Z | 100.0% | 99.3% | -0.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 09, 03:59 PM | 100.0% | 99.3% | −0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 09, 03:49 PM | 100.0% | 86.9% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:38 PM | 82.0% | 73.7% | −8.3 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:33 PM | 82.0% | 74.4% | −7.6 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:23 PM | 82.0% | 72.2% | −9.8 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:17 PM | 82.0% | 72.1% | −9.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:09 PM | 82.0% | 62.4% | −20 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:03 PM | 82.0% | 55.5% | −27 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 9 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 9 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.