Ethereum Up or Down on August 9?
Ends: Aug 9, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 9, 2026, 18:13 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 9, 2026, 16:31 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09T14:20:11.931Z | 61.5% | 53.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:20:29.908Z | 61.5% | 53.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:25:58.884Z | 56.5% | 49.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:29:13.076Z | 56.5% | 49.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:34:48.185Z | 65.5% | 58.3% | -7.2 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:38:11.817Z | 65.5% | 52.1% | -13.4 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:38:35.252Z | 65.5% | 52.1% | -13.4 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:47:34.664Z | 56.0% | 52.8% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:48:31.184Z | 56.0% | 52.8% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:59:04.670Z | 67.5% | 60.8% | -6.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T14:59:15.854Z | 67.5% | 60.8% | -6.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:03:43.553Z | 64.0% | 55.5% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:05:12.441Z | 64.0% | 55.5% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:07:40.957Z | 64.0% | 62.4% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:14:11.731Z | 82.0% | 72.1% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:16:46.016Z | 82.0% | 72.1% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:19:41.214Z | 84.5% | 72.8% | -11.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:23:12.150Z | 84.5% | 72.3% | -12.2 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:25:49.755Z | 84.5% | 72.3% | -12.2 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:34:20.618Z | 87.0% | 71.9% | -15.1 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:36:43.222Z | 87.0% | 71.9% | -15.1 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:38:42.702Z | 87.0% | 73.7% | -13.3 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:43:38.437Z | 87.5% | 73.7% | -13.8 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:51:40.893Z | 97.0% | 88.1% | -8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:54:17.415Z | 97.0% | 88.1% | -8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:59:00.927Z | 97.0% | 99.3% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:59:41.188Z | 97.0% | 99.3% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-09T16:09:20.363Z | 99.0% | 99.3% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-09T16:18:15.954Z | 100.0% | 99.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T16:29:30.897Z | 100.0% | 99.3% | -0.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 09, 03:59 PM | 97.0% | 99.3% | +2.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 09, 03:51 PM | 97.0% | 88.1% | −8.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:38 PM | 87.0% | 73.7% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:36 PM | 87.0% | 71.9% | −15 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:25 PM | 84.5% | 72.3% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:19 PM | 84.5% | 72.8% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:16 PM | 82.0% | 72.1% | −9.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:07 PM | 64.0% | 62.4% | −1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 9 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 9 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.