Ethereum Up or Down on August 9?
Ends: Aug 9, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 9, 2026, 18:13 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 9, 2026, 16:31 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09T15:38:41.566Z | 87.0% | 73.7% | -13.3 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:38:42.702Z | 87.0% | 73.7% | -13.3 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:40:12.262Z | 86.0% | 75.5% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:40:43.204Z | 86.0% | 75.5% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:43:38.437Z | 87.5% | 76.8% | -10.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:43:52.179Z | 87.5% | 76.8% | -10.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:45:11.882Z | 87.5% | 76.8% | -10.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:46:56.179Z | 87.5% | 81.4% | -6.1 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:47:12.043Z | 87.5% | 81.4% | -6.1 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:49:13.536Z | 97.0% | 86.9% | -10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:49:42.277Z | 97.0% | 86.9% | -10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:51:40.893Z | 97.0% | 88.1% | -8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:53:37.677Z | 97.0% | 89.0% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:54:14.143Z | 97.0% | 89.0% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:54:17.415Z | 97.0% | 89.0% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:55:42.567Z | 97.0% | 93.5% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:56:12.202Z | 97.0% | 93.5% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:59:00.927Z | 97.0% | 99.3% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-09T15:59:41.188Z | 97.0% | 99.3% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-09T16:03:11.856Z | 100.0% | 99.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T16:05:18.191Z | 100.0% | 99.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T16:08:12.188Z | 99.0% | 99.3% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-09T16:10:16.393Z | 99.8% | 99.3% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-09T16:13:45.117Z | 100.0% | 99.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T16:14:11.842Z | 100.0% | 99.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T16:17:12.031Z | 100.0% | 99.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T16:19:11.832Z | 100.0% | 99.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T16:24:18.427Z | 100.0% | 99.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T16:29:30.897Z | 100.0% | 99.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-09T16:34:45.467Z | 100.0% | 99.3% | -0.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 09, 03:59 PM | 97.0% | 99.3% | +2.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 09, 03:55 PM | 97.0% | 93.5% | −3.5 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:54 PM | 97.0% | 89.0% | −8.0 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:53 PM | 97.0% | 89.0% | −8.0 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:51 PM | 97.0% | 88.1% | −8.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:49 PM | 97.0% | 86.9% | −10 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:46 PM | 87.5% | 81.4% | −6.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 09, 03:43 PM | 87.5% | 76.8% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 9 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 9 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.