Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?
Ends: Oct 5, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 4, 2026, 04:33 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04T12:56:53.877Z | 50.0% | 81.8% | +31.8 pp |
| 2026-10-04T13:35:08.803Z | 50.0% | 81.8% | +31.8 pp |
| 2026-10-04T14:54:06.780Z | 50.5% | 81.8% | +31.3 pp |
| 2026-10-04T15:47:06.877Z | 50.5% | 81.8% | +31.3 pp |
| 2026-10-04T16:42:48.571Z | 50.5% | 81.8% | +31.3 pp |
| 2026-10-04T17:28:58.318Z | 52.5% | 81.8% | +29.3 pp |
| 2026-10-04T18:34:20.665Z | 51.5% | 81.8% | +30.3 pp |
| 2026-10-04T19:37:23.889Z | 58.5% | 81.8% | +23.3 pp |
| 2026-10-04T20:43:48.642Z | 62.5% | 81.8% | +19.3 pp |
| 2026-10-04T21:45:07.391Z | 70.5% | 81.8% | +11.3 pp |
| 2026-10-04T22:48:26.508Z | 80.5% | 81.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-10-04T23:51:03.274Z | 83.5% | 81.8% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T00:08:54.037Z | 83.5% | 81.8% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T00:56:51.347Z | 86.5% | 81.8% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T01:56:21.267Z | 86.5% | 81.8% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T03:01:21.644Z | 86.5% | 81.8% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T04:02:06.551Z | 79.5% | 81.8% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-10-05T05:26:06.618Z | 58.5% | 81.8% | +23.3 pp |
| 2026-10-05T06:11:41.831Z | 73.5% | 81.8% | +8.3 pp |
| 2026-10-05T07:17:40.524Z | 86.0% | 81.8% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-10-05T08:29:12.206Z | 89.5% | 81.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T09:35:24.932Z | 78.5% | 81.8% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-10-05T10:39:25.564Z | 84.5% | 81.8% | -2.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T11:29:38.169Z | 89.5% | 81.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T12:31:28.795Z | 87.5% | 81.8% | -5.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T13:37:52.907Z | 86.0% | 81.8% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-10-05T15:03:34.688Z | 84.1% | 81.8% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-10-05T15:42:55.857Z | 75.2% | 81.8% | +6.6 pp |
| 2026-10-05T16:42:52.397Z | 38.3% | 81.8% | +43.5 pp |
| 2026-10-05T17:59:51.983Z | 42.3% | 81.8% | +39.5 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 05, 12:08 AM | 83.5% | 81.8% | −1.7 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.