Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?
Ends: Oct 5, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 4, 2026, 04:33 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05T15:46:43.741Z | 69.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T15:47:42.551Z | 69.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T15:49:43.924Z | 68.8% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T15:52:43.982Z | 68.8% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T15:54:43.239Z | 68.8% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T15:56:41.372Z | 44.3% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T16:01:47.938Z | 56.3% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T16:08:29.861Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T16:13:45.170Z | 0.4% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T16:37:07.375Z | 38.3% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T16:41:00.728Z | 38.3% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T16:41:54.194Z | 38.3% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T16:46:51.806Z | 34.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T16:48:54.094Z | 31.3% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T16:52:41.054Z | 31.3% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T16:54:04.014Z | 23.8% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T16:57:41.274Z | 25.3% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T17:03:46.750Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T17:13:37.145Z | 30.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T17:15:55.713Z | 30.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T17:18:44.301Z | 29.4% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T17:23:17.678Z | 29.4% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T17:25:09.244Z | 28.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T17:28:13.941Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T17:30:00.498Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T17:59:51.983Z | 42.3% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T18:01:53.853Z | 54.9% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T18:03:42.198Z | 54.9% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T18:37:47.712Z | 99.9% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T18:43:27.800Z | 100.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.