Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?
Ends: Oct 5, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 4, 2026, 04:33 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05T11:29:38.169Z | 89.5% | 81.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T11:58:29.903Z | 90.5% | 81.8% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T12:31:28.795Z | 87.5% | 81.8% | -5.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T12:41:19.723Z | 82.5% | 81.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T12:52:12.218Z | 83.5% | 81.8% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T13:04:24.251Z | 88.0% | 81.8% | -6.2 pp |
| 2026-10-05T13:18:43.260Z | 91.5% | 81.8% | -9.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T13:37:52.907Z | 86.0% | 81.8% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-10-05T13:51:50.453Z | 92.5% | 81.8% | -10.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T13:56:01.967Z | 92.5% | 81.8% | -10.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T14:02:42.374Z | 94.5% | 81.8% | -12.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T14:10:15.324Z | 96.5% | 81.8% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T14:24:28.124Z | 95.3% | 81.8% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-10-05T14:29:18.213Z | 95.4% | 81.8% | -13.6 pp |
| 2026-10-05T15:03:34.688Z | 84.1% | 81.8% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-10-05T15:08:42.179Z | 85.0% | 81.8% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-10-05T15:42:55.857Z | 75.2% | 81.8% | +6.6 pp |
| 2026-10-05T15:50:43.870Z | 68.8% | 81.8% | +13.0 pp |
| 2026-10-05T16:01:47.938Z | 56.3% | 81.8% | +25.5 pp |
| 2026-10-05T16:08:29.861Z | 0.1% | 81.8% | +81.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T16:37:07.375Z | 38.3% | 81.8% | +43.5 pp |
| 2026-10-05T16:46:51.806Z | 34.2% | 81.8% | +47.6 pp |
| 2026-10-05T16:54:04.014Z | 23.8% | 81.8% | +58.0 pp |
| 2026-10-05T17:03:46.750Z | 33.5% | 81.8% | +48.3 pp |
| 2026-10-05T17:13:37.145Z | 30.2% | 81.8% | +51.6 pp |
| 2026-10-05T17:23:17.678Z | 29.4% | 81.8% | +52.3 pp |
| 2026-10-05T17:30:00.498Z | 27.5% | 81.8% | +54.3 pp |
| 2026-10-05T17:59:51.983Z | 42.3% | 81.8% | +39.5 pp |
| 2026-10-05T18:37:47.712Z | 99.9% | 81.8% | -18.1 pp |
| 2026-10-05T18:43:27.800Z | 100.0% | 81.8% | -18.2 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 05, 12:08 AM | 81.5% | 81.8% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.