Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?
Ends: Oct 5, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 4, 2026, 04:33 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04T04:41:18.986Z | 50.0% | 81.8% | +31.8 pp |
| 2026-10-04T05:54:58.855Z | 50.0% | 81.8% | +31.8 pp |
| 2026-10-04T10:41:08.492Z | 50.0% | 81.8% | +31.8 pp |
| 2026-10-04T14:54:06.780Z | 50.5% | 81.8% | +31.3 pp |
| 2026-10-04T19:32:04.313Z | 58.5% | 81.8% | +23.3 pp |
| 2026-10-04T23:55:45.514Z | 83.0% | 81.8% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-10-05T00:08:54.037Z | 83.0% | 81.8% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-10-05T04:35:48.682Z | 62.5% | 81.8% | +19.3 pp |
| 2026-10-05T08:57:29.574Z | 86.5% | 81.8% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05T13:37:52.907Z | 86.0% | 81.8% | -4.2 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 05, 12:08 AM | 83.0% | 81.8% | −1.2 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.