Ethereum Up or Down on August 20?
Ends: Aug 20, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 20, 2026, 04:54 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20T02:55:32.774Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:02:25.132Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:02:27.666Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:06:23.704Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:08:30.848Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:14:40.319Z | 98.4% | 99.9% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:22:25.795Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:24:27.498Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:33:20.685Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:35:31.710Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:37:30.634Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:39:19.319Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:45:53.646Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:50:29.406Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:53:28.745Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:02:21.613Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:07:32.908Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:11:29.526Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:13:55.196Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:16:23.745Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:18:27.358Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:20:30.343Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:22:28.464Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:26:24.359Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:36:28.126Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:38:31.082Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:46:38.232Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:49:22.973Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:53:27.345Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:54:55.590Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 04:53 AM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 20, 04:49 AM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 20, 04:46 AM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 20, 04:38 AM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 20, 04:36 AM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 20, 04:26 AM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 20, 04:22 AM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 20, 04:20 AM | 50.0% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.