Ethereum Up or Down on August 20?
Ends: Aug 20, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 20, 2026, 05:38 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20T03:10:27.635Z | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:14:40.319Z | 98.1% | 99.9% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:22:25.795Z | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:24:27.498Z | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:33:20.685Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:35:34.474Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:37:30.634Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:39:19.319Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:48:22.318Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:50:29.406Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:56:20.987Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:04:27.326Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:07:32.908Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:11:30.559Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:16:20.742Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:16:23.745Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:20:29.991Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:22:28.464Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:24:23.600Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:32:25.968Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:38:31.082Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:41:50.181Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:49:22.973Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:53:27.345Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:55:25.670Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T05:01:27.601Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T05:04:28.501Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T05:06:21.412Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T05:35:01.022Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T05:38:19.310Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 05:35 AM | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 05:06 AM | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 05:04 AM | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 05:01 AM | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 04:55 AM | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 04:53 AM | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 04:49 AM | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 04:41 AM | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.