Ethereum Up or Down on August 20?
Ends: Aug 20, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 20, 2026, 04:53 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20T03:35:06.054Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:35:31.710Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:35:34.474Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:37:30.720Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:39:19.319Z | 97.5% | 100.0% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:43:13.739Z | 97.5% | 100.0% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:48:22.318Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:52:06.658Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:53:28.745Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T03:56:20.987Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:02:06.804Z | 98.2% | 100.0% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:04:27.326Z | 98.2% | 100.0% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:07:32.908Z | 98.2% | 100.0% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:11:09.788Z | 98.2% | 100.0% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:11:30.559Z | 98.2% | 100.0% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:16:20.742Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:16:23.745Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:19:09.714Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:20:29.991Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:20:30.343Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:24:23.600Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:32:11.652Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:32:25.968Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:36:28.126Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:37:21.790Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:41:50.181Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:46:38.232Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:50:05.550Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:51:21.532Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-20T04:53:10.531Z | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 04:51 AM | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 04:46 AM | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 04:41 AM | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 04:36 AM | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 04:32 AM | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 04:24 AM | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 04:20 AM | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 04:20 AM | 98.4% | 100.0% | +1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.