Ethereum Up or Down on August 14?
Ends: Aug 14, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 14, 2026, 17:39 UTCResolved: Aug 14, 2026, 16:10 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14T15:51:48.226Z | 71.4% | 71.1% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:52:44.144Z | 71.4% | 71.1% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:53:15.573Z | 71.4% | 71.1% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:53:26.127Z | 74.2% | 71.1% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:54:49.433Z | 74.2% | 83.8% | +9.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:55:42.986Z | 74.2% | 83.8% | +9.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:56:12.793Z | 74.2% | 83.8% | +9.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:56:15.769Z | 74.2% | 83.8% | +9.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:56:24.237Z | 74.2% | 83.8% | +9.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:59:35.931Z | 74.2% | 85.3% | +11.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:00:47.278Z | 74.2% | 85.3% | +11.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:05:15.784Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:10:28.972Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:16:49.483Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:21:58.677Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:27:17.409Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:33:13.811Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:38:21.020Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:46:45.059Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:51:47.500Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:56:56.741Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T17:02:11.316Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T17:07:14.299Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T17:12:46.330Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T17:17:50.622Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T17:22:56.677Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T17:28:09.531Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T17:33:17.496Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T17:38:25.217Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T17:39:36.147Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 04:00 PM | 74.2% | 85.3% | +11 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 14, 03:56 PM | 74.2% | 83.8% | +9.6 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 14, 03:56 PM | 74.2% | 83.8% | +9.6 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 14, 03:55 PM | 74.2% | 83.8% | +9.6 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 14, 03:53 PM | 74.2% | 71.1% | −3.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 03:53 PM | 71.4% | 71.1% | −0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 14, 03:52 PM | 71.4% | 71.1% | −0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 14, 03:46 PM | 65.0% | 79.4% | +14 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.