Ethereum Up or Down on August 14?
Ends: Aug 14, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 14, 2026, 17:39 UTCResolved: Aug 14, 2026, 16:10 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14T12:34:45.595Z | 24.5% | 39.2% | +14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T12:37:14.941Z | 24.5% | 36.4% | +11.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T12:38:36.643Z | 24.5% | 36.7% | +12.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T12:44:57.002Z | 24.5% | 30.2% | +5.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T12:52:39.194Z | 24.5% | 28.8% | +4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T13:01:03.954Z | 24.5% | 28.1% | +3.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T13:06:25.567Z | 24.5% | 21.5% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T13:09:31.767Z | 24.5% | 17.1% | -7.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T13:09:55.931Z | 24.5% | 17.1% | -7.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T13:20:57.579Z | 24.5% | 9.7% | -14.8 pp |
| 2026-08-14T13:31:03.061Z | 24.5% | 15.7% | -8.8 pp |
| 2026-08-14T13:36:41.535Z | 24.5% | 8.3% | -16.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T13:42:40.624Z | 24.5% | 8.6% | -15.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T13:51:43.040Z | 24.5% | 5.2% | -19.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T14:02:53.265Z | 24.5% | 5.9% | -18.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T14:10:42.912Z | 24.5% | 4.0% | -20.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T14:23:14.891Z | 24.5% | 1.5% | -23.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T14:25:46.193Z | 24.5% | 1.6% | -22.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T14:37:14.738Z | 24.5% | 6.7% | -17.8 pp |
| 2026-08-14T14:40:25.886Z | 24.5% | 10.9% | -13.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T14:47:46.899Z | 24.5% | 7.0% | -17.5 pp |
| 2026-08-14T14:54:52.291Z | 24.5% | 1.2% | -23.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:11:48.009Z | 24.5% | 1.1% | -23.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:19:51.121Z | 24.5% | 0.8% | -23.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:26:56.661Z | 100.0% | 5.6% | -94.3 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:35:43.387Z | 100.0% | 19.4% | -80.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:41:50.780Z | 100.0% | 66.0% | -34.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:53:26.127Z | 100.0% | 71.1% | -28.8 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:00:47.278Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T17:39:36.147Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 04:00 PM | 24.5% | 85.3% | +61 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 14, 03:53 PM | 24.5% | 71.1% | +47 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 14, 03:41 PM | 24.5% | 66.0% | +41 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 14, 03:35 PM | 24.5% | 19.4% | −5.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 03:26 PM | 24.5% | 5.6% | −19 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 03:19 PM | 24.5% | 0.8% | −24 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 03:11 PM | 24.5% | 1.1% | −23 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 02:54 PM | 24.5% | 1.2% | −23 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.