Ethereum Up or Down on August 14?
Ends: Aug 14, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 14, 2026, 17:39 UTCResolved: Aug 14, 2026, 16:10 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14T14:42:34.009Z | 18.5% | 10.6% | -7.9 pp |
| 2026-08-14T14:50:17.378Z | 4.0% | 2.0% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T14:52:45.274Z | 4.0% | 2.0% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:00:20.826Z | 3.0% | 2.0% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:07:39.888Z | 3.5% | 1.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:09:16.642Z | 3.5% | 1.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:17:43.734Z | 3.1% | 0.9% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:18:12.719Z | 3.1% | 0.9% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:23:50.072Z | 3.1% | 2.9% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:30:53.884Z | 25.7% | 12.1% | -13.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:32:37.301Z | 25.7% | 12.1% | -13.6 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:35:12.766Z | 31.1% | 19.4% | -11.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:36:15.290Z | 31.1% | 19.4% | -11.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:46:59.176Z | 69.2% | 79.4% | +10.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:50:51.224Z | 69.2% | 71.1% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:53:12.990Z | 71.4% | 71.1% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T15:53:26.127Z | 71.4% | 71.1% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:00:47.278Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:05:15.784Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:16:49.483Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:21:58.677Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:33:13.811Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:38:21.020Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:51:47.500Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T16:56:56.741Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T17:07:14.299Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T17:17:50.622Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T17:28:09.531Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T17:33:17.496Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-14T17:39:36.147Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 04:00 PM | 100.0% | 85.3% | −15 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 03:53 PM | 71.4% | 71.1% | −0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 14, 03:46 PM | 69.2% | 79.4% | +10 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 14, 03:36 PM | 31.1% | 19.4% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 03:32 PM | 25.7% | 12.1% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 14, 03:23 PM | 3.1% | 2.9% | −0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 14, 03:17 PM | 3.1% | 0.9% | −2.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 14, 03:09 PM | 3.5% | 1.1% | −2.4 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 13 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 14 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.