Ethereum Up or Down on August 15?
Ends: Aug 15, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 15, 2026, 18:30 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 15, 2026, 17:22 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15T15:39:49.546Z | 93.5% | 83.6% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:40:56.152Z | 93.5% | 83.6% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:41:22.694Z | 93.5% | 83.6% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:49:19.813Z | 95.0% | 86.3% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:49:28.194Z | 95.0% | 86.3% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:50:12.870Z | 98.6% | 86.3% | -12.3 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:51:20.206Z | 98.6% | 91.9% | -6.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:51:35.269Z | 98.6% | 91.9% | -6.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:53:14.403Z | 98.6% | 93.3% | -5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:54:38.093Z | 99.3% | 93.3% | -5.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:55:13.881Z | 99.3% | 93.3% | -5.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:58:00.572Z | 99.5% | 96.2% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:58:37.749Z | 99.5% | 96.2% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:00:13.952Z | 99.5% | 96.2% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:06:13.627Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:11:15.367Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:18:03.877Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:23:11.646Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:29:09.380Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:34:20.446Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:39:29.274Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:44:41.078Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:50:07.526Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:55:15.086Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T17:01:21.471Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T17:06:26.780Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T17:11:32.157Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T17:16:55.029Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T17:22:01.870Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T17:27:13.228Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.8 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 03:58 PM | 99.5% | 96.2% | −3.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 15, 03:54 PM | 99.3% | 93.3% | −5.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 15, 03:51 PM | 98.6% | 91.9% | −6.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 15, 03:51 PM | 98.6% | 91.9% | −6.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 15, 03:49 PM | 95.0% | 86.3% | −8.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 15, 03:40 PM | 93.5% | 83.6% | −9.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 15, 03:38 PM | 93.5% | 81.3% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 15, 03:38 PM | 83.5% | 82.7% | −0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 14 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 15 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 14 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 15 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.