Ethereum Up or Down on August 15?
Ends: Aug 15, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 15, 2026, 18:30 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 15, 2026, 17:22 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15T14:48:09.016Z | 56.0% | 53.4% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:51:24.819Z | 56.0% | 54.0% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:55:13.518Z | 74.5% | 65.6% | -8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:56:15.850Z | 74.5% | 65.6% | -8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:04:12.917Z | 63.5% | 60.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:05:19.610Z | 63.5% | 60.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:09:37.383Z | 63.5% | 60.1% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:15:12.872Z | 72.5% | 61.6% | -10.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:15:59.707Z | 72.5% | 61.6% | -10.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:18:50.282Z | 72.5% | 69.2% | -3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:21:15.756Z | 72.5% | 72.3% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:23:39.900Z | 81.0% | 62.9% | -18.1 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:28:42.449Z | 81.0% | 68.3% | -12.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:30:42.068Z | 81.0% | 68.3% | -12.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:32:12.835Z | 81.0% | 68.3% | -12.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:38:15.572Z | 93.5% | 82.7% | -10.8 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:41:22.694Z | 93.5% | 82.7% | -10.8 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:49:28.194Z | 98.6% | 86.3% | -12.3 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:50:12.870Z | 98.6% | 86.3% | -12.3 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:58:37.749Z | 99.5% | 96.2% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:59:13.689Z | 99.5% | 96.2% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:11:15.367Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:18:03.877Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:29:09.380Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:39:29.274Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:44:41.078Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T16:55:15.086Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T17:06:26.780Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T17:11:32.157Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T17:22:01.870Z | 100.0% | 96.2% | -3.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 03:58 PM | 99.5% | 96.2% | −3.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 15, 03:49 PM | 98.6% | 86.3% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 15, 03:38 PM | 93.5% | 82.7% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 15, 03:30 PM | 81.0% | 68.3% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 15, 03:23 PM | 81.0% | 62.9% | −18 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 15, 03:21 PM | 72.5% | 72.3% | −0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 15, 03:18 PM | 72.5% | 69.2% | −3.3 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 15, 03:15 PM | 72.5% | 61.6% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 14 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 15 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 14 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 15 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.