Ethereum Up or Down on August 15?
Ends: Aug 15, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 15, 2026, 18:30 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 15, 2026, 17:22 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15T12:57:18.341Z | 62.5% | 38.1% | -24.4 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:04:19.418Z | 62.5% | 50.6% | -11.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:07:36.661Z | 62.5% | 57.4% | -5.1 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:11:54.269Z | 62.5% | 53.4% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:18:20.329Z | 62.5% | 58.3% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:21:15.417Z | 62.5% | 52.4% | -10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:26:51.139Z | 62.5% | 54.0% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:41:53.850Z | 62.5% | 57.9% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:53:08.859Z | 62.5% | 54.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:55:21.199Z | 62.5% | 56.8% | -5.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:06:23.585Z | 62.5% | 54.4% | -8.1 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:11:54.813Z | 62.5% | 55.1% | -7.4 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:18:16.267Z | 62.5% | 54.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:19:40.760Z | 62.5% | 54.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:21:36.984Z | 62.5% | 52.0% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:26:05.527Z | 62.5% | 49.2% | -13.3 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:36:39.278Z | 62.5% | 54.9% | -7.6 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:40:50.274Z | 62.5% | 51.9% | -10.6 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:50:33.340Z | 62.5% | 54.0% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:55:44.045Z | 62.5% | 65.6% | +3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:04:11.014Z | 62.5% | 60.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:07:47.199Z | 62.5% | 61.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:11:49.845Z | 62.5% | 58.6% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:16:25.935Z | 62.5% | 61.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:20:50.973Z | 62.5% | 72.3% | +9.8 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:23:39.354Z | 62.5% | 62.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:30:42.068Z | 62.5% | 68.3% | +5.8 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:38:15.572Z | 62.5% | 82.7% | +20.2 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:49:28.194Z | 62.5% | 86.3% | +23.8 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:58:37.749Z | 62.5% | 96.2% | +33.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 03:58 PM | 62.5% | 96.2% | +34 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 15, 03:49 PM | 62.5% | 86.3% | +24 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 15, 03:38 PM | 62.5% | 82.7% | +20 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 15, 03:30 PM | 62.5% | 68.3% | +5.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 15, 03:23 PM | 62.5% | 62.9% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 15, 03:20 PM | 62.5% | 72.3% | +9.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 15, 03:16 PM | 62.5% | 61.6% | −0.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 15, 03:11 PM | 62.5% | 58.6% | −3.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 14 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 15 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 14 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 15 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.