Ethereum Up or Down on August 15?
Ends: Aug 15, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 15, 2026, 18:01 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 15, 2026, 17:22 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15T12:53:36.561Z | 63.5% | 36.2% | -27.3 pp |
| 2026-08-15T12:57:18.341Z | 63.5% | 38.1% | -25.4 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:04:19.418Z | 63.5% | 50.6% | -12.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:07:36.661Z | 63.5% | 57.4% | -6.1 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:16:49.317Z | 63.5% | 58.3% | -5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:19:40.478Z | 63.5% | 52.4% | -11.1 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:21:49.197Z | 63.5% | 55.0% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:26:51.139Z | 63.5% | 54.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:36:53.196Z | 63.5% | 56.7% | -6.8 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:46:45.054Z | 63.5% | 56.7% | -6.8 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:54:37.372Z | 63.5% | 56.8% | -6.7 pp |
| 2026-08-15T13:57:26.120Z | 63.5% | 57.2% | -6.3 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:09:50.825Z | 63.5% | 55.1% | -8.4 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:17:14.913Z | 63.5% | 55.1% | -8.4 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:19:50.710Z | 63.5% | 54.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:23:42.244Z | 63.5% | 48.7% | -14.8 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:31:41.151Z | 63.5% | 49.9% | -13.6 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:38:36.839Z | 63.5% | 54.9% | -8.6 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:48:10.780Z | 63.5% | 53.4% | -10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:53:44.381Z | 63.5% | 60.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-15T14:56:20.862Z | 63.5% | 65.6% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:05:25.157Z | 63.5% | 60.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:10:26.541Z | 63.5% | 60.1% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:16:16.917Z | 63.5% | 61.6% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:20:50.973Z | 63.5% | 72.3% | +8.8 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:23:39.354Z | 63.5% | 62.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:30:25.715Z | 63.5% | 68.3% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:36:39.033Z | 63.5% | 82.7% | +19.2 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:49:28.194Z | 63.5% | 86.3% | +22.8 pp |
| 2026-08-15T15:58:37.749Z | 63.5% | 96.2% | +32.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 03:58 PM | 63.5% | 96.2% | +33 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 15, 03:49 PM | 63.5% | 86.3% | +23 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 15, 03:36 PM | 63.5% | 82.7% | +19 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 15, 03:30 PM | 63.5% | 68.3% | +4.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 15, 03:23 PM | 63.5% | 62.9% | −0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 15, 03:20 PM | 63.5% | 72.3% | +8.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 15, 03:16 PM | 63.5% | 61.6% | −1.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 15, 03:10 PM | 63.5% | 60.1% | −3.4 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 14 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 15 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 14 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 15 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.