Ethereum Up or Down on August 22?
Ends: Aug 22, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 23, 2026, 11:49 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 22, 2026, 16:14 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22T14:51:37.854Z | 82.5% | 85.1% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T14:54:07.983Z | 82.5% | 85.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:04:17.388Z | 82.5% | 85.6% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:10:56.804Z | 82.5% | 79.4% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:11:01.229Z | 82.5% | 79.4% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:11:10.557Z | 82.5% | 79.4% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:12:05.045Z | 82.5% | 79.4% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:12:17.610Z | 82.5% | 79.4% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:13:21.184Z | 82.5% | 82.0% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:16:24.833Z | 82.5% | 78.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:16:57.122Z | 82.5% | 78.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:17:06.049Z | 82.5% | 78.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:19:24.229Z | 96.5% | 83.3% | -13.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:22:15.594Z | 96.5% | 83.9% | -12.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:27:14.250Z | 96.5% | 88.0% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:30:27.137Z | 96.5% | 90.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:33:18.526Z | 96.5% | 92.7% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:36:20.051Z | 96.5% | 96.3% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:39:19.816Z | 96.5% | 95.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:41:20.525Z | 96.5% | 94.6% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:45:20.409Z | 96.5% | 98.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:46:49.733Z | 96.5% | 98.9% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:47:22.637Z | 96.5% | 98.9% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:47:25.451Z | 96.5% | 98.9% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:50:17.498Z | 96.5% | 98.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:53:41.333Z | 96.5% | 99.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:53:42.673Z | 96.5% | 99.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:56:17.138Z | 96.5% | 99.9% | +3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T15:58:12.179Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T16:00:22.148Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 04:00 PM | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 22, 03:58 PM | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 22, 03:56 PM | 96.5% | 99.9% | +3.4 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 22, 03:53 PM | 96.5% | 99.3% | +2.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 03:53 PM | 96.5% | 99.3% | +2.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 03:50 PM | 96.5% | 98.5% | +2.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 03:47 PM | 96.5% | 98.9% | +2.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 03:47 PM | 96.5% | 98.9% | +2.4 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.