Ethereum Up or Down on August 22?
Ends: Aug 22, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 22, 2026, 10:35 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22T09:20:05.040Z | 79.3% | 76.6% | -2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:20:54.890Z | 79.3% | 76.6% | -2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:23:58.135Z | 79.3% | 77.3% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:27:57.096Z | 78.0% | 75.0% | -2.9 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:30:56.675Z | 78.0% | 77.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:31:17.024Z | 78.0% | 77.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:33:59.938Z | 78.0% | 76.4% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:37:57.928Z | 76.8% | 74.6% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:38:54.540Z | 76.8% | 74.6% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:40:06.096Z | 76.8% | 72.5% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:44:14.314Z | 77.8% | 74.5% | -3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:47:53.115Z | 77.8% | 69.5% | -8.3 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:49:58.992Z | 77.8% | 69.5% | -8.3 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:51:11.944Z | 77.8% | 69.5% | -8.3 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:54:00.632Z | 77.8% | 73.3% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:56:02.678Z | 76.5% | 69.8% | -6.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:01:15.929Z | 76.5% | 71.1% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:03:06.989Z | 76.5% | 71.1% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:04:05.879Z | 65.4% | 71.1% | +5.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:05:53.263Z | 65.4% | 62.1% | -3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:06:21.039Z | 65.4% | 62.1% | -3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:11:00.023Z | 62.6% | 60.0% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:14:23.017Z | 62.6% | 57.4% | -5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:14:53.225Z | 62.6% | 57.4% | -5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:19:24.607Z | 54.4% | 56.2% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:23:53.080Z | 54.4% | 49.7% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:25:00.996Z | 54.4% | 49.7% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:33:22.023Z | 62.4% | 62.6% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:35:53.426Z | 62.4% | 62.6% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:37:14.848Z | 62.4% | 62.6% | +0.2 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 10:37 AM | 62.4% | 62.6% | +0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 10:25 AM | 54.4% | 49.7% | −4.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 22, 10:19 AM | 54.4% | 56.2% | +1.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 10:14 AM | 62.6% | 57.4% | −5.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 22, 10:11 AM | 62.6% | 60.0% | −2.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 10:06 AM | 65.4% | 62.1% | −3.3 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 22, 10:04 AM | 65.4% | 71.1% | +5.7 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 22, 10:03 AM | 76.5% | 71.1% | −5.4 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.