Ethereum Up or Down on August 22?
Ends: Aug 22, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 22, 2026, 10:35 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22T10:11:00.023Z | 62.6% | 60.0% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:11:04.610Z | 62.6% | 60.0% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:11:26.747Z | 62.6% | 60.0% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:12:37.582Z | 62.6% | 60.0% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:12:53.276Z | 62.6% | 60.0% | -2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:14:09.727Z | 62.6% | 57.4% | -5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:14:23.017Z | 62.6% | 57.4% | -5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:14:27.125Z | 62.6% | 57.4% | -5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:14:53.225Z | 62.6% | 57.4% | -5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:17:35.649Z | 62.6% | 56.2% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:17:53.399Z | 60.7% | 56.2% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:18:54.251Z | 60.7% | 56.2% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:19:24.607Z | 60.7% | 56.2% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:19:54.183Z | 60.7% | 56.2% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:20:53.013Z | 54.4% | 51.4% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:22:09.332Z | 54.4% | 51.4% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:23:01.437Z | 54.4% | 51.4% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:23:53.080Z | 54.4% | 49.7% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:24:53.056Z | 54.4% | 49.7% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:25:00.996Z | 54.4% | 49.7% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:25:54.450Z | 54.4% | 49.7% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:26:55.137Z | 54.4% | 53.9% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:27:53.397Z | 52.5% | 53.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:28:17.938Z | 52.5% | 53.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:29:15.570Z | 52.5% | 53.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:30:01.060Z | 52.5% | 53.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:31:14.619Z | 52.5% | 53.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:33:22.023Z | 62.4% | 62.6% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:35:53.426Z | 62.4% | 62.6% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T10:37:14.848Z | 62.4% | 62.6% | +0.2 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 10:37 AM | 62.4% | 62.6% | +0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 10:28 AM | 52.5% | 53.9% | +1.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 10:25 AM | 54.4% | 49.7% | −4.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 22, 10:22 AM | 54.4% | 51.4% | −3.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 10:19 AM | 60.7% | 56.2% | −4.4 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 22, 10:14 AM | 62.6% | 57.4% | −5.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 22, 10:14 AM | 62.6% | 57.4% | −5.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 22, 10:11 AM | 62.6% | 60.0% | −2.6 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.