Ethereum Up or Down on August 22?
Ends: Aug 22, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 22, 2026, 09:54 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22T08:23:09.652Z | 74.4% | 80.6% | +6.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T08:24:15.832Z | 74.4% | 81.3% | +6.9 pp |
| 2026-08-22T08:26:01.294Z | 74.4% | 80.3% | +5.9 pp |
| 2026-08-22T08:28:19.702Z | 74.4% | 76.5% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-22T08:32:18.992Z | 74.4% | 75.4% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T08:36:56.073Z | 74.4% | 69.8% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T08:38:54.837Z | 74.4% | 69.0% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T08:42:54.736Z | 74.4% | 69.8% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T08:49:38.418Z | 74.4% | 71.4% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T08:51:57.204Z | 74.4% | 73.5% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-22T08:54:05.613Z | 74.4% | 73.1% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-22T08:58:14.734Z | 74.4% | 73.9% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:06:00.769Z | 74.4% | 67.1% | -7.3 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:07:01.836Z | 74.4% | 70.8% | -3.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:09:07.989Z | 74.4% | 70.8% | -3.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:13:57.327Z | 74.4% | 76.2% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:18:55.188Z | 74.4% | 76.6% | +2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:19:58.898Z | 74.4% | 76.6% | +2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:21:57.197Z | 74.4% | 76.9% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:25:59.198Z | 74.4% | 75.8% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:27:57.805Z | 74.4% | 75.0% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:31:19.739Z | 74.4% | 77.3% | +2.9 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:33:59.938Z | 74.4% | 76.4% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:37:57.928Z | 74.4% | 74.6% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:40:06.096Z | 74.4% | 72.5% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:44:14.314Z | 74.4% | 74.5% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:47:59.981Z | 74.4% | 70.6% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:50:00.331Z | 74.4% | 69.5% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:52:00.438Z | 74.4% | 72.2% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-22T09:54:37.353Z | 74.4% | 72.2% | -2.2 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 09:52 AM | 69.7% | 72.2% | +2.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 09:50 AM | 69.7% | 69.5% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 09:47 AM | 69.7% | 70.6% | +1.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 09:44 AM | 69.7% | 74.5% | +4.9 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 22, 09:40 AM | 69.7% | 72.5% | +2.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 22, 09:37 AM | 69.7% | 74.6% | +4.9 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 22, 09:33 AM | 69.7% | 76.4% | +6.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 22, 09:31 AM | 69.7% | 77.3% | +7.6 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 21 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 22 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.