Ethereum Up or Down on August 13?
Ends: Aug 13, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 13, 2026, 16:08 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13T11:41:50.262Z | 15.5% | 13.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T11:54:49.267Z | 15.5% | 13.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T12:06:38.479Z | 15.5% | 15.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T12:19:39.530Z | 15.5% | 18.9% | +3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T12:22:02.954Z | 15.5% | 21.6% | +6.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T12:35:00.542Z | 15.5% | 26.9% | +11.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T12:45:15.934Z | 15.5% | 30.1% | +14.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T12:52:30.850Z | 15.5% | 33.9% | +18.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T12:54:32.104Z | 15.5% | 32.9% | +17.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T13:07:40.263Z | 15.5% | 56.5% | +41.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T13:13:44.563Z | 15.5% | 50.9% | +35.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T13:24:30.803Z | 15.5% | 37.8% | +22.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T13:37:40.461Z | 15.5% | 51.3% | +35.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T13:48:23.608Z | 15.5% | 46.2% | +30.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T13:56:43.550Z | 0.1% | 41.5% | +41.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:10:36.725Z | 0.1% | 35.7% | +35.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:20:39.094Z | 0.1% | 49.5% | +49.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:31:19.872Z | 0.1% | 37.1% | +37.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:39:54.079Z | 0.1% | 68.6% | +68.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:53:51.679Z | 0.1% | 60.1% | +60.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:02:37.312Z | 0.1% | 72.3% | +72.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:06:45.017Z | 0.1% | 50.0% | +50.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:10:45.724Z | 0.1% | 39.4% | +39.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:21:39.187Z | 0.1% | 50.8% | +50.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:24:49.951Z | 0.1% | 37.9% | +37.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:35:31.396Z | 0.1% | 15.1% | +15.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:47:18.748Z | 0.1% | 28.0% | +27.9 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:51:39.814Z | 0.1% | 12.3% | +12.2 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:57:30.837Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T16:08:05.460Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 03:57 PM | 15.5% | 0.1% | −15 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 13, 03:51 PM | 15.5% | 12.3% | −3.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 13, 03:47 PM | 15.5% | 28.0% | +12 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 03:35 PM | 15.5% | 15.1% | −0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 13, 03:24 PM | 15.5% | 37.9% | +22 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 03:21 PM | 15.5% | 50.8% | +35 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 03:10 PM | 15.5% | 39.4% | +24 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 03:06 PM | 15.5% | 50.0% | +35 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.