Ethereum Up or Down on August 13?
Ends: Aug 13, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 13, 2026, 16:08 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13T13:56:43.550Z | 50.5% | 41.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:03:31.034Z | 49.5% | 41.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:10:36.725Z | 60.0% | 35.7% | -24.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:15:14.702Z | 60.0% | 35.7% | -24.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:21:12.634Z | 50.5% | 56.8% | +6.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:22:39.653Z | 50.5% | 56.8% | +6.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:32:14.007Z | 43.5% | 57.6% | +14.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:34:40.745Z | 43.5% | 57.6% | +14.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:40:27.108Z | 67.5% | 68.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:40:33.012Z | 67.5% | 68.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:51:13.978Z | 66.5% | 60.1% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:53:51.679Z | 66.5% | 60.1% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:58:22.959Z | 57.0% | 72.3% | +15.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:02:37.312Z | 57.0% | 72.3% | +15.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:06:45.017Z | 71.0% | 50.0% | -21.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:07:12.864Z | 71.0% | 50.0% | -21.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:10:45.724Z | 71.0% | 39.4% | -31.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:15:41.081Z | 44.5% | 39.4% | -5.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:21:39.187Z | 59.0% | 50.8% | -8.2 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:24:32.312Z | 59.0% | 50.8% | -8.2 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:27:50.825Z | 59.0% | 27.8% | -31.2 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:34:13.792Z | 13.0% | 15.1% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:35:31.396Z | 13.0% | 15.1% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:44:25.980Z | 17.0% | 28.0% | +11.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:47:18.748Z | 17.0% | 28.0% | +11.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:51:39.814Z | 6.5% | 12.3% | +5.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:52:12.728Z | 6.5% | 12.3% | +5.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:57:30.837Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T16:01:12.605Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T16:08:05.460Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 03:57 PM | 0.1% | 0.1% | −0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 13, 03:51 PM | 6.5% | 12.3% | +5.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 03:47 PM | 17.0% | 28.0% | +11 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 03:35 PM | 13.0% | 15.1% | +2.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 13, 03:27 PM | 59.0% | 27.8% | −31 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 13, 03:21 PM | 59.0% | 50.8% | −8.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 13, 03:10 PM | 71.0% | 39.4% | −32 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 13, 03:06 PM | 71.0% | 50.0% | −21 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.