Ethereum Up or Down on August 13?
Ends: Aug 13, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 13, 2026, 16:08 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13T15:45:14.182Z | 29.5% | 28.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:46:14.065Z | 29.5% | 28.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:46:15.173Z | 29.5% | 28.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:47:13.848Z | 29.5% | 28.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:47:18.748Z | 29.5% | 28.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:47:24.531Z | 29.5% | 28.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:48:12.694Z | 29.5% | 28.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:49:13.873Z | 29.5% | 3.5% | -26.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:49:42.706Z | 29.5% | 3.5% | -26.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:50:12.693Z | 6.5% | 3.5% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:50:17.635Z | 6.5% | 3.5% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:51:13.730Z | 6.5% | 12.3% | +5.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:51:39.814Z | 6.5% | 12.3% | +5.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:52:12.728Z | 6.5% | 12.3% | +5.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:53:13.832Z | 6.5% | 1.5% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:53:44.254Z | 6.5% | 1.5% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:54:45.580Z | 6.5% | 1.5% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:55:12.920Z | 1.4% | 1.5% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:56:14.450Z | 1.4% | 0.1% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:56:57.635Z | 1.4% | 0.1% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:57:15.661Z | 1.4% | 0.1% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:57:23.652Z | 1.4% | 0.1% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:57:30.837Z | 1.4% | 0.1% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:59:20.078Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T16:00:12.774Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T16:01:12.605Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T16:02:14.006Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T16:03:12.761Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T16:04:13.530Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T16:08:15.349Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 03:57 PM | 1.4% | 0.1% | −1.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 13, 03:57 PM | 1.4% | 0.1% | −1.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 13, 03:56 PM | 1.4% | 0.1% | −1.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 13, 03:53 PM | 6.5% | 1.5% | −5.0 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 13, 03:51 PM | 6.5% | 12.3% | +5.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 03:50 PM | 6.5% | 3.5% | −3.0 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 13, 03:49 PM | 29.5% | 3.5% | −26 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 13, 03:47 PM | 29.5% | 28.0% | −1.5 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.