Ethereum Up or Down on August 13?
Ends: Aug 13, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 13, 2026, 15:41 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13T11:25:42.096Z | 25.5% | 12.3% | -13.2 pp |
| 2026-08-13T11:37:37.422Z | 25.5% | 10.7% | -14.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T11:41:50.262Z | 25.5% | 13.4% | -12.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T11:54:49.267Z | 25.5% | 13.0% | -12.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T12:04:38.681Z | 25.5% | 13.0% | -12.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T12:16:45.454Z | 25.5% | 22.6% | -2.9 pp |
| 2026-08-13T12:21:35.564Z | 25.5% | 21.6% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-13T12:31:46.415Z | 25.5% | 25.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-13T12:40:42.515Z | 25.5% | 29.2% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T12:50:37.457Z | 25.5% | 33.1% | +7.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T12:54:30.527Z | 25.5% | 32.9% | +7.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T13:05:40.745Z | 25.5% | 38.6% | +13.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T13:12:25.065Z | 25.5% | 50.9% | +25.4 pp |
| 2026-08-13T13:22:40.275Z | 25.5% | 42.2% | +16.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T13:34:36.580Z | 17.0% | 41.0% | +24.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T13:46:19.521Z | 17.0% | 54.6% | +37.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T13:51:34.245Z | 17.0% | 49.2% | +32.2 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:06:07.222Z | 17.0% | 35.7% | +18.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:17:46.439Z | 17.0% | 50.1% | +33.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:31:16.789Z | 17.0% | 37.1% | +20.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:35:19.167Z | 17.0% | 57.6% | +40.6 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:43:27.722Z | 17.0% | 70.0% | +53.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T14:57:01.992Z | 17.0% | 55.8% | +38.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:04:41.014Z | 17.0% | 66.1% | +49.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:09:34.484Z | 17.0% | 44.8% | +27.8 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:18:10.253Z | 17.0% | 38.1% | +21.1 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:22:41.108Z | 17.0% | 59.2% | +42.2 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:31:42.907Z | 17.0% | 5.3% | -11.7 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:40:58.124Z | 17.0% | 23.0% | +6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-13T15:41:45.271Z | 17.0% | 23.0% | +6.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 03:40 PM | 25.5% | 23.0% | −2.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 13, 03:31 PM | 25.5% | 5.3% | −20 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 13, 03:22 PM | 25.5% | 59.2% | +34 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 03:18 PM | 25.5% | 38.1% | +13 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 03:09 PM | 25.5% | 44.8% | +19 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 03:04 PM | 25.5% | 66.1% | +41 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 02:57 PM | 25.5% | 55.8% | +30 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 13, 02:43 PM | 25.5% | 70.0% | +45 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 12 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 13 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.