Ethereum Up or Down on September 21?
Ends: Sep 21, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 22, 2026, 19:32 UTCResult: UPResolved: Sep 21, 2026, 16:13 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19T18:55:47.226Z | 50.5% | 60.4% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-09-20T12:56:55.205Z | 50.5% | 60.4% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-09-20T18:59:45.733Z | 50.5% | 60.4% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-09-20T20:59:28.320Z | 50.5% | 65.3% | +14.8 pp |
| 2026-09-20T21:57:39.419Z | 50.5% | 61.8% | +11.3 pp |
| 2026-09-20T23:58:37.456Z | 50.5% | 74.2% | +23.7 pp |
| 2026-09-21T01:28:44.081Z | 50.5% | 88.2% | +37.7 pp |
| 2026-09-21T04:38:16.360Z | 50.5% | 84.8% | +34.3 pp |
| 2026-09-21T06:59:01.091Z | 50.5% | 89.0% | +38.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T08:36:52.654Z | 50.5% | 97.7% | +47.2 pp |
| 2026-09-21T09:49:32.399Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T10:57:19.898Z | 50.5% | 99.9% | +49.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T11:59:52.340Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T12:56:53.636Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T13:56:03.412Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T14:56:53.545Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 02:56 PM | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 21, 01:56 PM | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 21, 12:56 PM | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 21, 11:59 AM | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 21, 10:57 AM | 50.5% | 99.9% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 21, 09:49 AM | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 21, 08:36 AM | 50.5% | 97.7% | +47 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 21, 06:59 AM | 50.5% | 89.0% | +38 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.