Ethereum Up or Down on September 21?
Ends: Sep 21, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 21, 2026, 16:24 UTCResult: UPResolved: Sep 21, 2026, 16:13 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21T14:47:04.590Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T14:49:12.405Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T14:51:36.170Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T14:51:40.364Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T14:52:15.419Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T14:56:49.647Z | 99.1% | 100.0% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-09-21T14:56:53.545Z | 99.1% | 100.0% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-09-21T14:57:24.303Z | 99.1% | 100.0% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:03:29.771Z | 99.1% | 100.0% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:03:44.291Z | 99.1% | 100.0% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:19:29.924Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:21:25.245Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:22:01.032Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:27:46.105Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:29:28.691Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:32:20.030Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:32:53.902Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:35:10.834Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:37:12.386Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:39:25.073Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:44:40.446Z | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:46:02.512Z | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:53:36.696Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:53:50.397Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-21T16:00:35.998Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-21T16:00:40.355Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-21T16:00:57.523Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-21T16:06:30.068Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-21T16:12:41.787Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-21T16:16:11.247Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 04:00 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 21, 04:00 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 21, 03:53 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 21, 03:46 PM | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 21, 03:39 PM | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 21, 03:35 PM | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 21, 03:32 PM | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 21, 03:29 PM | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.