Bitcoin Up or Down on August 8?
Ends: Aug 8, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 8, 2026, 02:50 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T01:01:43.326Z | 48.5% | 49.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:03:39.757Z | 48.5% | 49.1% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:07:42.154Z | 48.5% | 48.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:09:48.172Z | 48.5% | 48.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:14:47.278Z | 48.5% | 51.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:16:44.601Z | 48.5% | 51.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:22:39.657Z | 48.5% | 49.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:25:25.753Z | 48.5% | 49.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:29:41.098Z | 48.5% | 49.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:33:49.279Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:37:38.476Z | 48.5% | 49.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:40:32.886Z | 48.5% | 49.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:41:55.824Z | 48.5% | 49.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:50:43.729Z | 48.5% | 49.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:55:20.294Z | 48.5% | 49.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:59:18.650Z | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:04:45.001Z | 48.5% | 48.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:05:26.468Z | 48.5% | 48.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:06:45.467Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:10:49.958Z | 48.5% | 48.3% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:16:42.563Z | 48.5% | 48.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:20:45.274Z | 48.5% | 48.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:24:41.505Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:33:39.427Z | 48.5% | 51.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:35:47.220Z | 48.5% | 50.9% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:36:30.455Z | 48.5% | 50.9% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:39:54.357Z | 48.5% | 49.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:43:08.347Z | 48.5% | 49.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:47:49.079Z | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:50:23.526Z | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 08, 02:47 AM | 71.5% | 49.0% | −22 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 02:43 AM | 71.5% | 49.2% | −22 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 02:39 AM | 71.5% | 49.3% | −22 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 02:36 AM | 71.5% | 50.9% | −21 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 02:35 AM | 71.5% | 50.9% | −21 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 02:33 AM | 71.5% | 51.2% | −20 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 02:24 AM | 71.5% | 48.5% | −23 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 08, 02:20 AM | 71.5% | 48.0% | −23 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.