Bitcoin Up or Down on August 8?
Ends: Aug 8, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 8, 2026, 02:50 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T02:11:20.335Z | 46.5% | 48.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:14:40.824Z | 47.5% | 47.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:16:10.660Z | 47.5% | 48.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:16:42.563Z | 47.5% | 48.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:18:46.879Z | 47.5% | 48.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:21:11.034Z | 47.5% | 48.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:22:11.740Z | 47.5% | 48.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:22:44.549Z | 47.5% | 48.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:24:15.490Z | 47.5% | 48.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:24:41.505Z | 47.5% | 48.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:24:42.317Z | 47.5% | 48.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:26:10.776Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:29:10.774Z | 48.5% | 48.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:31:11.609Z | 51.5% | 51.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:33:39.427Z | 51.5% | 51.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:35:09.066Z | 51.5% | 51.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:35:10.884Z | 51.5% | 51.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:35:47.220Z | 51.5% | 50.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:36:18.154Z | 51.5% | 50.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:36:30.455Z | 51.5% | 50.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:38:11.197Z | 51.5% | 50.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:39:36.878Z | 48.5% | 49.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:39:54.357Z | 48.5% | 49.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:39:56.272Z | 48.5% | 49.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:40:18.495Z | 48.5% | 49.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:44:44.811Z | 48.5% | 49.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:45:43.866Z | 48.5% | 49.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:47:49.079Z | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:49:50.230Z | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:50:23.526Z | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 08, 02:47 AM | 48.5% | 49.0% | +0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 02:45 AM | 48.5% | 49.2% | +0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 02:40 AM | 48.5% | 49.3% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 02:39 AM | 48.5% | 49.3% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 02:39 AM | 48.5% | 49.3% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 02:36 AM | 51.5% | 50.9% | −0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 02:36 AM | 51.5% | 50.9% | −0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 08, 02:35 AM | 51.5% | 50.9% | −0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.